Is it over for Jordan Lawlar?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Who’s arguing?

I’m not an attorney and I’m glad I’m not one.

Yes, because only attorneys argue. :rollseyes:

You and your butt buddies need a new schtick. It's uninspired.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

At least get his name right.

But no one is talking about Austin Hendrick but you. And if you think comparing Lawler, a legit major league prospect, who has excelled in the minors and made the majors, is the same as a kid drafted at 18 but struggled in low A from day 1, and has never shown anything in the minors, than that explains a lot about why you struggle with basic concepts.

It doesn’t matter what his name is.

[Giancarlo27]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

It's only you and your troll buddies who constantly talk about my job. I literally never talk about it. I had this username in the card community for over 20 years, and I regret using it here, before I realized they refuse to let you change it. I only used it here because people knew me by that name and I wanted the continuity. If I could change it I would, so small minded trolls like you wouldn't have anything else to talk about when you have no valid point to argue about.

You do realize you only have “trolls” because you love to argue with everyone over pedantic crap like this argument?

And tit’s not just your name. I went to law school with like 100 people just like you lol


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[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Yes, because only attorneys argue. :rollseyes:

You and your butt buddies need a new schtick. It's uninspired.

Haven’t heard that one in 20 years.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Giancarlo27

You do realize you only have “trolls” because you love to argue with everyone over pedantic crap like this argument?

And tit’s not just your name. I went to law school with like 100 people just like you lol


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Why do you insist on talking about going to law school? It's not a good look.

But I'm not surprised, because arrogant trolls like you who feel the need to troll other people just because you don't like how they discuss things with others are pretty common among lawyers I work with. If you have something to add to the discussion, by all means, say it. But if all you want to do is jump into the discussion to troll someone you don't like, you can take a hike.

By the way, cardbro made this pedantic, not me. He wanted to play games changing the normal defintion of "hobby dead" when people pointed out how his small sample size fallacy was a bit premature.

But trolls tend to overlook those details if it doesn't fit their narrative.

[Giancarlo27]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Why do you insist on talking about going to law school? It's not a good look.

But I'm not surprised, because arrogant trolls like you who feel the need to troll other people just because you don't like how they discuss things with others are pretty common among lawyers I work with. If you have something to add to the discussion, by all means, say it. But if all you want to do is jump into the discussion to troll someone you don't like, you can take a hike.

By the way, cardbro made this pedantic, not me. He wanted to play games changing the normal defintion of "hobby dead" when people pointed out how his small sample size fallacy was a bit premature.

But trolls tend to overlook those details if it doesn't fit their narrative.

Ok I’ll add my two cents. Lawlar has shown nothing suggesting he is an MLB quality player yet. Yes you are correct that if he hits .350 with 50 homers next year, his cards will move. What point that proves, or how it’s relevant to the discussion, besides proving that no one is officially “hobby dead” until they are playing in Korea or deceased, I do not know. Congrats on derailing another thread with a pointless semantic argument, maybe now we can go back to discussing Lawlar?


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[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Giancarlo27

Ok I’ll add my two cents. Lawlar has shown nothing suggesting he is an MLB quality player yet. Yes you are correct that if he hits .350 with 50 homers next year, his cards will move. What point that proves, or how it’s relevant to the discussion, besides proving that no one is officially “hobby dead” until they are playing in Korea or deceased, I do not know. Congrats on derailing another thread with a pointless semantic argument, maybe now we can go back to discussing Lawlar?


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You derailed the thread more than me. You admittedly came in for no other reason than to troll me.

My argument wasn't semantics. And my position doesn't result in a player needing to be in Korea before they're hobby dead. My argument is that no top 10 prospect who is stil 22 with only a few dozen major league at bats is hobby dead. That's not semantics. It common sense. But keep going with the misstatement of my argument to keep up your false narrative that I always argue semantics. What else would you have to post about if you didn't?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

My argument wasn't semantics.

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

If the chance is greater than 0.00%, then I am right.

[StlBen]

Pretty sure he was hobby dead when he drafted by the Diamondbacks.

[hermanotarjeta]

98% of all sports cards produced become hobby dead with time.

[hermanotarjeta]

If you believe in Lawlar, how low do you let prices go before buying the dip?

[ThoseBackPages]

id rather waste that money on Druw Jones

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It doesn’t matter what his name is.

I read this in The Rock's voice

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

id rather waste that money on Druw Jones

Forgot about him. What a disaster for anyone who bought.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Chris P

I read this in The Rock's voice

Chris P gets it!

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The big difference between the performance of judge and Lawlar cards is that judge started out as a $10 auto and Lawlar was a $400 auto.

Being hobby dead essentially means never seeing your initial hyped peak prices again.

Sure, Lawlar could be serviceable. Even sort of good, but never $400 chrome auto good again, ever.

That’s what I mean by hobby dead.

A couple of things I see over and over that I disagree with;

1) The level of talent required to be hobby good is much lower than where most people put it. It is in fact more than just five guys.

2) You can't compare prices to their 2021 peak. The number of players who will reach those heights ever again is limited. The number who will actually finish above those heights is pretty much Judge.

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Regardless, $400 first bowman auto is nothing if he turns into a hall of famer.

As of mid October the median active player that had met or is a shoe-in to meet the HOF standard laid out by Silent George was ~$400. The average was a little higher due to the big guys impacting the small sample, but if Lawlar became an HOFer he'd be roughly 50/50 to be $400, give or take the market.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

A couple of things I see over and over that I disagree with;

1) The level of talent required to be hobby good is much lower than where most people put it. It is in fact more than just five guys.

2) You can't compare prices to their 2021 peak. The number of players who will reach those heights ever again is limited. The number who will actually finish above those heights is pretty much Judge.



As of mid October the median active player that had met or is a shoe-in to meet the HOF standard laid out by Silent George was ~$400. The average was a little higher due to the big guys impacting the small sample, but if Lawlar became an HOFer he'd be roughly 50/50 to be $400, give or take the market.

Good points.

My main purpose was to point out the discrepancy in prices at which people are willing to gamble on prospects versus 10-20 years ago even adjusted for inflation. Breaking and reckless speculation has brought those prices to a new level.

The number of prospects who become hobby dead far outnumber those who become hobby good, however. Thus, the risks and potential losses are higher.

Interesting fact is that the first player to be elected to the hall of fame who has a bowman chrome first year auto is Joe Mauer. His chrome auto can easily be found for less than $400. It has been available for that price throughout the entirety of his career, for the most part.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

As I stated before, these are 1-2 out of 100 exceptions.

Except that simple is not true.....most players struggle when they are first called up.....players who mash from their first AB in the majors are the exception, rather than the rule.

Roberto Clemente still had a career OPS+ of under 100 at the end of his 5th major league season.

Mike Schmidt had a .198 BA and a 89 OPS+ at the end of his first full MLB season (483 PA).

George Brett started his career 5-40 and had a 87 OPS+ at the end of his first full MLB season.

You can't tell ANYTHING from a 50 AB sample size....

It's that simple....

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Except that simple is not true.....most players struggle when they are first called up.....players who mash from their first AB in the majors are the exception, rather than the rule.

Roberto Clemente still had a career OPS+ of under 100 at the end of his 5th major league season.

Mike Schmidt had a .198 BA and a 89 OPS+ at the end of his first full MLB season (483 PA).

George Brett started his career 5-40 and had a 87 OPS+ at the end of his first full MLB season.

You can't tell ANYTHING from a 50 AB sample size....

It's that simple....

I understand your point. You absolutely can’t judge a player’s future performance based on 50 random at bats, especially your first 50 at bats.

My point is, to be hobby good and to sustain your initial hype inflated prices, you for the most part must start off hot to maintain. Players today have very short hobby leashes and speculators have too many distractions.

You can end up baseball solid in the future but your cards will be left far behind and you won’t make any money off your initial purchases, as the buy in prices have set you up to fail.

[hermanotarjeta]

The biggest question for Lawlar speculators now is - do you want to cut ties now and minimize your losses, or are you going to risk losing everything with the chance he may become a solid everyday player or utility player and still lose a good amount from that $400 you paid initially?

Those who paid $400 for Joe Mauer as an investment can buy his cards for $200 today, YET he has already been elected to the HOF.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The biggest question for Lawlar speculators now is - do you want to cut ties now and minimize your losses, or are you going to risk losing everything with the chance he may become a solid everyday player or utility player and still lose a good amount from that $400 you paid initially?

Those who paid $400 for Joe Mauer as an investment can buy his cards for $200 today, YET he has already been elected to the HOF.

Actually joe mauer chrome autos have gone up a lot since his hof announcement

you could have made a ton of money on his chrome autos

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Good points.



My main purpose was to point out the discrepancy in prices at which people are willing to gamble on prospects versus 10-20 years ago even adjusted for inflation. Breaking and reckless speculation has brought those prices to a new level.



The number of prospects who become hobby dead far outnumber those who become hobby good, however. Thus, the risks and potential losses are higher.



Interesting fact is that the first player to be elected to the hall of fame who has a bowman chrome first year auto is Joe Mauer. His chrome auto can easily be found for less than $400. It has been available for that price throughout the entirety of his career, for the most part.

While I get your point, the card landscape (as well as the economic landscape) is just so different today than it was then, that you can't really extrapolate much valuable information by trying to compare the amounts people are willing to gamble on prospects in each era. Not to mention, the number of adult collectors (not investors) with a lot of money who are currently buying cards for their collections has exploded with the huge boom of 80s/80s kids coming into their prime earning years. The junk wax era popularity has come full circle and that massive market now has a lot of money and passion for collecting. Consequently, when they compete for cards, prices will explode. So what was a lot for a rookie card 20 years ago, is peanuts today due to basic supply and demand in a very different market. You don't have to like it, but there is far more nuance to high prospect prices than just prospectors looking to make a buck.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I understand your point. You absolutely can’t judge a player’s future performance based on 50 random at bats, especially your first 50 at bats.

My point is, to be hobby good and to sustain your initial hype inflated prices, you for the most part must start off hot to maintain. Players today have very short hobby leashes and speculators have too many distractions.

You can end up baseball solid in the future but your cards will be left far behind and you won’t make any money off your initial purchases, as the buy in prices have set you up to fail.

True.

But did Lawlar ever really have hype-inflated prices?

His RC 2024 Heritage Black Refractors peaked at about $70.....that's a fraction of what hyped rookie Black Refractors go for......Merrill, Chourio, and Skenes all hit $400-500 this spring.....this year James Wood is at around $200-250.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mfw13

True.

But did Lawlar ever really have hype-inflated prices?

His RC 2024 Heritage Black Refractors peaked at about $70.....that's a fraction of what hyped rookie Black Refractors go for......Merrill, Chourio, and Skenes all hit $400-500 this spring.....this year James Wood is at around $200-250.

I’d say $400 for his bowman chrome first auto was pretty hyped - not many achieve that level, even for pandemic standards.

He’s been injured multiple times since his 2024 rookie card logo issues, so there’s a reason why his 2024 cards have been tempered in price.

Many have already jumped ship. After this most recent demotion, the hull has been cracked pretty severely at this point in time.

We all know a prospect’s shelf life is quite limited.

It will be a steep uphill battle to achieve hobby relevance again.

[meandsharon11]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

You people are crazy. Are you seriously telling me that if he comes back up and hits .350 with 45 HR every year for the next 10 years with 60+ WAR by 32 years old that he won't be a hobby superstar?

This site is nuts, and so is this phantom concept of "the hobby" you all refer to.

The fact is that nobody is hobby dead at 22, no matter what their hype was or how bad they were at 21 or 22. They are young enough to put together a career that could absolutely put them in the hobby pantheon.

I don't think Lawler will be that guy, but saying no matter what he does he's already hobby irrelevant is just stupid.

Ruben Sierra…..